HUB International has released its 2026 outlook for the transportation industry, outlining four focus areas: technology, profitability, vitality, and resiliency.

HUB is a leader in the industry, and I value that insight and take this heads up seriously It’s a polished report full of insurance language. I’ve read it so you don’t have to. Here’s what I think it all means in plain language.

The short version?
Rates are going up. Claims are getting harder to collect. And insurers are stepping in where governments have failed.

Technology: “Optional” Is No Longer a Word

The report says the adoption and optimization of emerging technology is non-negotiable. Underwriters now expect carriers to be using telematics, ELDs, and in-cab cameras when negotiating terms.

Translated:
This is your final reckoning, If you don’t have ELDs and cameras, you won’t get insurance.

It won’t matter if you operate federally or provincially. If you want commercial truck insurance in Canada, telematics will be part of the deal. The last holdouts — the “old-school” fleets — are out of road.

There is no money left in trucking, no carrier can absorb additional insurance costs just because a driver threatens to quit over cameras. If you can afford to self-insure, Alberta allows it — but that risk is yours alone.

Profitability: “Safeguarding” Means You’re Paying More

The gist is, telematics and data are tools to “safeguard profitability.” What that really means is:

• Your margins are gone
• Your rates are increasing
• Claims will be scrutinized harder than ever

Yes, telematics can save money — eventually. But only after you spend money, retrain drivers, and survive the adjustment period.

The report correctly points to litigation financing and nuclear verdicts as a major driver of rising costs. This is especially true in Alberta, where private insurance creates more opportunities for large civil claims.

Insurers congratulate themselves for keeping car liability rates “stable,” but the truth is simpler:
People stopped making claims.
Because if you do, your premium goes up the same amount the following year — so you eat the cost instead.

Vitality: Driver Wellness, But at What Cost?

I thought the points about driver wellness and vitality felt a bit victim blamey; we all understand the facilities and supports do not exist for drivers to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Apparently drivers want more than wages — they want physical, mental, and emotional support.

But here’s what drivers really want:
To go to work and not die on the highway because an untrained driver with a brand-new licence passed them on a double solid and wrecked.

The article suggests low-cost wellness tools like CDL health scanners and fitness apps. A CDL health scanner is a smartphone-based tool that allows drivers to self-monitor health indicators relevant to medical fitness related to commercial driving.

My dystopian mind thinks, it’s not a big leap from self-monitoring to employer-collected data. Health rings. Smartphones. Driver fatigue metrics transmitted alongside ELD data.

At what point do we start to see payroll deductions for fat jabs become part of “risk management”?

Drivers do have medical events behind the wheel that kill not just themselves, but innocent people. Why do medically unfit drivers keep driving? Because there is no social safety net that allows them to stop driving, get well, and still earn a living.

In Alberta, sleep apnea symptoms are self-reported during a driver medical. Physicians know that pulling a licence often means condemning someone to poverty on disability. But removing medically unfit drivers from public roads must be a priority.

Autonomous long-haul trucks are not imminent in Canada — especially not in northern provinces. If we can’t automate the truck, the next step is automating the driver.

ELDs already monitor hours. Driver-facing cameras already monitor behaviour. Fatigue alerts are coming. Ignore an alert, crash, die — and now it’s the company’s fault for not training the driver to stop.

Resiliency: Weather, Cybercrime, and Human Weakness

The writers highlight natural disasters and cyber threats. Using weather data to keep trucks off highways in dangerous conditions is just common sense. Don’t run LCVs in an ice storm.

Cyber-facilitated cargo theft is newer — and very real. Instead of smash-and-grab, criminals manipulate routing and delivery instructions. If drivers rely solely on apps and text-based dispatch, rerouting a load is easy. Two days later, the truck, trailer and cargo is on a ship to a foreign land.

“Patching social engineering vulnerabilities” is a fancy way of saying:
Stop people from getting tricked.

Never give out passwords. Verify instructions. Slow down.

ELD systems store enormous amounts of sensitive data — licences, addresses, personal identifiers. Carriers are responsible for limiting access and securing it properly.

The Bottom Line

Every measure in this report shifts more responsibility onto the carrier.

• Mandatory telematics
• Increased data sharing
• Stricter driver screening
• More training, monitoring, and documentation

The new Class 1 Driver Experience Abstract requires carriers to attest to driver experience. Orientation, evaluations, ongoing coaching, and ELD-based monitoring are no longer optional.

In other words, carriers are being pushed toward formal, professional driver training systems — the same components found in red-seal style programs.

Whether governments act or not, the insurance industry already has.

Commercial trucking insurance is high-stakes gambling. Insurance premiums are the wager—a bet on the fleet, drivers, and safety practices. The insurance company is the "house," accepting that bet in hopes the fleet won’t incur significant claims. But what goes on behind the scenes? How do insurance companies calculate the odds, and what happens if they miscalculate? Here’s a closer look at commercial trucking insurance.

The Gamble: Premiums, Odds, and Actuaries

When setting premium rates, insurance companies rely on actuaries, the industry’s "odds makers." These experts use historical data and risk models to calculate the likelihood of claims. They analyze factors like accident frequency, claim costs, and inflation trends. Setting the minimum premium, or “bet.” Insurance brokers act as intermediaries, like a bookie, between trucking companies and insurers. They earn commissions to facilitate these relationships.

Actuarial calculations are only as reliable as the data they use. If the data is wrong the resulting odds and premiums may misrepresent actual risks. Insurers may overcharge safe trucking companies or undercharge riskier ones. These inaccuracies, if widespread, drive up premiums across the industry. Insurance companies offset losses by charging all policyholders higher rates, ensuring that everyone bears the brunt of miscalculated risks.

Actuaries vs. Underwriters: Understanding Their Roles

While actuaries work with numbers, underwriters assess a company’s specific risk factors. For instance, underwriters examine a trucking company’s Carrier Profile and safety rating. A "Satisfactory" rating typically indicates strong risk management and may lead to lower premiums, whereas a "Conditional" rating suggests potential issues, leading to stricter rates or additional charges. Now is a good time to re-read my blog, Don’t look behind the curtain! unveiling the Alberta Transportation safety scam. Unlike actuaries, underwriters consider a broader range of factors, including safety practices, maintenance programs, and driver qualifications.

Insurance Models in Canada: Public, Private, and Self-Insured

In Canada, insurance systems vary by province, with three main models: public (government-managed), private, and self-insured.

• Public Insurance (No-Fault): Used in provinces like Manitoba, public insurance is government-managed and operates on a no-fault basis. Each driver’s insurer covers their client’s damages, regardless of fault, with caps on compensation. This often simplifies the claims process but limits potential payouts.
• Private Insurance: Alberta and other provinces use a system, where at-fault drivers are liable for damages. This model allows for more extensive claims, including so-called "nuclear verdicts," or massive payouts in severe cases. Private insurers can deny coverage to high-risk clients, and litigation is more common as parties seek additional compensation.
• Self-Insurance (Captive): Captive insurance allows companies to self-insure by establishing their own insurance entities, often lowering costs and retaining profits. Alberta, with new regulatory frameworks introduced in 2022, has become a leading location for captive insurance, offering tax advantages and efficient licensing for companies focused on Canadian risks.

Captive insurance can be structured as either "pure" captives for individual companies or "group" captives that pool resources across multiple companies, sharing risks and lowering costs. Captives can offer cost control, customized coverage, and better claims management—attractive benefits for companies looking to optimize their insurance options. Now think of a group of “chameleon carriers” getting together to self-insure, no risk there.

Limiting Liability: Knowing Your Policy and Exclusions

Understanding your policy and identifying gaps in your safety and maintenance program is of the upmost importance. These gaps could be used against you when approving or denying claims.  Insurance companies may scrutinize records during an incident review especially if the carrier has a black swan event. Insurance companies are looking for evidence to limit liability, looking for reasons to minimize claim payouts. Key areas for attention include:

• Driver Compliance: Are driver files compliant? Are you monitoring your drivers’ hours-of-service? Do you deactivate drivers ELD logins so fake drivers are not used as ghost drivers?
• Vehicle Maintenance: Comprehensive records must be maintained, including maintenance records and proof of regular safety inspections. Document re-torques when wheels are removed and at regular intervals in case of wheel separation.
• Third Party Equipment: All third party equipment must be maintained; the carrier should clarify the responsibility and liability for its maintenance and any incidents involving it.

Complete and accurate documentation can be the difference between an insurance payout or a hefty company expense. For example, if a wheel flies off the carrier needs to be able to show regular inspections and re-torques.

In commercial trucking insurance, exclusions refer to specific situations, events, or types of damages that the insurance policy will not cover. These exclusions are important to understand, as they indicate which risks and scenarios the carrier will be financially responsible for if they occur. If you smash up your vehicle while driving impaired the insurance company doesn’t pay for a new car.

Common exclusions often include:

• Unapproved Drivers: Accidents caused by drivers not listed on the policy are typically excluded from coverage. Unqualified or unauthorized drivers logged into ELD systems can also complicate claims. Is a driver with an invalid work permit included in this?
• Intentional Acts and Criminal Behavior: Reckless driving, impairment, and other illegal behaviors often void coverage.
• Improper Maintenance and Mechanical Failures: Claims arising from preventable maintenance issues may not be covered.
• Out-of-Territory Operations: Provincially regulated carriers (intra-provincial-Alberta only) must hold a federal safety fitness certificate to operate extra-provincially (outside Alberta). There is no permit available to hold a temporary federal SFC. Out-of-province incidents may not be covered.
• Driver Fatigue Violations: Violations of hours-of-service regulations can void coverage in case of an accident, carriers are required to monitor fatigue to minimize risks. An out-of-service driver should not be on the road.

Final Thoughts: Navigating the Insurance Gamble

The relationship between trucking companies and insurers is an intricate blend of risk, probability, and strategic management. With proactive documentation, a comprehensive safety program, and a thorough understanding of policy limits, companies can make the most of their insurance—and minimize surprises when they need it most. Lack of reliable regulatory oversight from federal and provincial governments has resulted in inaccurate carrier information, allowing trucking companies on the road that do not meet safety standards. Two things will happen, insurance companies will put pressure on regulators to do their jobs, or insurance companies will have to do enhanced compliance reviews before insuring a carrier. Insurance companies cannot use inaccurate carrier profile information and bogus TPA (third party auditors) audits anymore to determine risk.